Post race analysis and personal findings:
1) I found that the temperature differential (30c during training vs 10c during racing) will only allow me to sustain the projected MP for the whole 42k without bonking. Unlike other trained runners (e.g. by7), I still don’t have that ability to utilize the cooler racing temperature into running faster than projected MP. A heat chart by Tinman suggest that a change in temperature from 50F (Gold Coast temp 10c) to 90F (Singapore temp 30c) will cause a performance drop of 5%. Since I have been practicing MP at 4:20-4:25 min/km in Singapore, ‘theoretically’ the heat training in Singapore could enable me to do sub-3 (4:20 pace x 95% = 4:12 pace
2) My marathon HR in Gold Coast was 165bpm or 85% Max HR. My last max test was done 3 years ago and it was 195 bpm. I am not sure what my max is now but maybe it’s down by a couple of beats. Hadd training article and other lets run posts suggest that well-trained runners (with 190+ HR Max) can run marathon averaging 175bpm (87-88% Max). So my marathon HR is about 10bpm lower than those people.
The aforementioned points above may indicate a few things 1) Assuming if I was well-trained, I was too conservative during the race and didn’t realize the possibility that I could run a bit faster; or 2) I wasn’t very well-trained, hence I was unable to capitalize on the lower temperature and run at a higher HR; or 3) I am just one of those average joes.
My next race is the Army Half Marathon in mid-August (did 1:28 last year). There are only 5 weeks of training left (including taper) to prepare for the race, hopefully I can match or slightly better last year’s timing.
No other races planned for the rest of the year. There are possibilities that I sprinkle a couple of short races here and there (e.g HM leg of Singapore Marathon in Dec or Freo HM in Sep if family allows). My wife and kiddo will return to Singapore at the end of the month, so training times will be slightly constrained and less flexible. My current aim is to do general type of base work consisting of moderate mileage, 2 day offs per week, in order to balance family life.
Have yet to decide on next marathon. What currently comes to mind includes Seoul International Marathon in March (flat course, sub-zero temperature in 2007), Gold Coast Marathon again in early July or perhaps Perth Marathon (not sure when).
Training this week:
W: 7.5k Recovery (5:28) in Melbourne
T: 12.5k Easy/Mod (4:48) with last 30mins moderate(4:40)
F: Arrived in SG, 6k Recovery (5:27) + massage
S: 5k Easy (5:00), 2 strides
S: 8k POSB Run for Kids race in 32:23 (4:03) + 6k wu/cd (5:40)
Despite just ran a marathon a week ago, I decided to do a low key 8k race. Initially planned to run this at about 4:05 pace to get HR data for next month’s Army HM, but got sucked in to a fast start. Felt good in the first half, but found no leg speed in the second half despite feeling as strong as an ox. HR was almost constant at 182 in the last 5k. Just couldn’t push harder. Finished 4th, about 50secs behind the 3rd runner and 3 minutes after the 1st runner. Splits: 3:53/167 (hill), 3:57/177, 4:00/180, 3:57/183, 4:04/182, 4:12/182 (hill), 4:07/181, 4:02/182, 10secs extra. I am not sure whether I can maintain this pace for 21k, so probably a 1:27-1:28 is an appropriate HM goal for me.