15k solo tempo run in HK

In line with the festive holiday season, my running is virtually also on 'holiday' mood.

After averaging 300+ ks for the last 9 months or so, I only managed to do around 200k month-to-date due to a combination of family visits, holiday and work. After the SCSM half, I averaged out running every second day or so.

Week of 7-13 Dec: 5 off days, 2 runs, total 26k
Week of 14-20 Dec: 2 off days, 5 runs, total 65k
Week of 21-27 Dec: 3 off days, 4 short runs, total 35k

Had a good Christmas break in Hong Kong with wife and son: doing lots of shopping, eating good food, and visiting Disneyland. Had a major scare as Sling Jr vomited a few times one night and we had to rush him to the hospital. The doc said it was probably gastritis. Thankfully, he seemed to be recovering quickly and is on the mend.

Had a good run whilst in Disneyland. Weather was cool at sub-10c with some wind chill here and there. Ran along 1.8k stretch of road between Lake Inspiration and Disneyland Hotel for 4 return trips. The cool conditions at about 1/3 of usual Singapore temperature made running so damn easy and effortless. My original intent was to do 10k tempo run at 4:00 pace. I duly passed the 5k in 19:58 and 10k at 40:08 and still felt strong. Consequently, I decided to continue the run, picked up the ante, and passed the 15k mark in 59:50 and covered 15.06k in 1 hour flat.

An unofficial PB since my last 15k race in 2005 was around 61:40s. My 15k splits from Melbourne HM was 61:12 and Singapore HM was 61:16.

The route was flat and in a straight line (no corners, no turns), hence I think the GPS distance should be pretty close to accurate. I also ran another 60 meters extra just to make sure some compensation of the u-turns :p Hmm...can I claim this as a PB?

I felt that I could continue at this pace for another few ks since I still had some gas in the tank. The good thing about running in cool temperature is that I sweated less and do not have to re-hydrate. Even for allowing sole slow down to around 4:10-4:15 for the next 6k, I think I could end up doing a 86 minute half-marathon that day if I continued. Or even could be 85-ish if I didn't run solo (aka race conditions).

Putting the 60-minute 15k in Jack Daniels chart suggests that I am in 54 VDOT shape: 38:40 10k, 1h:25m HM, and 2h:59m marathon. While McMillan predicts 38:40 10k, 1h:26m HM, and 3:01:42 marathon. Whilst the actual results will depend on the training and the runner itself, at least, these prediction calculators will give me some pace guidelines to shoot for.

On the negative side, the tempo run results re-affirm my view that I am a crap hot weather racer. I really admire local runners like Ronnie, Vivian, Tatz, Steven etc who can run 80-85m HMs in hot weather countries like Singapore and Cambodia. Due to my excessive sweating, both my heart and working muscles simply have to work hard to compete with the skin for blood under warm conditions. Also due to my insanely high sweat loss, I can never be able to keep up with the optimal hydration needs without doing a lot of stops at water stations.