Thanks for everyone's vote of confidence that I could complete an impromptu marathon with just 2 months of training. Sounds like around 3:10 was a popular prediction.
Well. I've been looking it at my past running log and found some interesting stuff (see chart below)
The 1st bar shows my monthly mileage for Joong-an marathon in Nov 08. The prep was quite similar to current situation. We were in Japan for holiday and rarely ran for 2 weeks. Then I embarked on 8 weeks of marathon training. Av mileage for that 8 weeks block was 384k per month. If we include another month before that (including holiday period), the 3 month average was 355k. This yielded 3:11 marathon.
The 2nd bar depicts mileage for Gold Coast in Jul 09. I was in off-season mode for 1 month (baby), then had 12 weeks of marathon training. Av mileage for the last 2 months prior to the race was 415k per month, for 3 months it was 388k. This yielded 3:04
The 3rd and 4th bars show mileage from two popular programs, Hal Higdon and Pfitzinger. Av mileage are 300 and 400ks respectively for 2 & 3 months before race week
The 5th bar shows the projected mileage leading to Seoul 2010 (mid Dec-mid Mar period).This assumes 90k average for Week 3-6 and 70k average for week 7-8. This produces a monthly average of 330 for 3 months and 360 for last 2 months prior to the race.
- Based on Joong-an and GCM data, it seems higher mileage & longer prep correlate positively with marathon times (at least for me). There is pretty strong evidence that 3 months averaging 400k+ helped me to attain faster marathon timing in GC.
- My mileage are concentrated in the last few weeks before the race as depicted by more mileage done in last 2 months versus last 3 months.
- Higdon and Pfitz plan show consistent volumes for last 3 and 2 months. This raises another question whether I work too much in the last few weeks (tried to cram in everything as race day got closer)
- To say that my mileage is higher than Higdon's advance plan is misleading, since Higdon's plan runs for 4 months. My training plan is only 2 months.
- Will run Seoul with lower mileage compared to previous 2 marys & Pfitz plan
- It looks that there is nil chance to get a PB ! lol
So, that's a bit of analysis based on mileage. It's more difficult to compare intensities since all the workouts in each cycle are different. If we use average weekly training pace as a proxy for intensity, presently the data show that I am still averaging a the same training pace. In fact, my average pace still hovers about 5:00 pace and it hasn’t changed in four years!
Anyway, training this week:
4k warm up/strides (av pace 5:25)
10 mins, 4mins jog, 10mins, 3mins jog, 5mins
Ran the fast part at 3:50-3:55 min/km, slow part av 4:45 min/km
Covered 7.9k in 32mins with 4 miles worth of 10k-paced running
3k cool down (av pace 5:30)
Total session 15k in 1h:10m (av pace 4:44)
11.7k easy in 60mins, including 5 barefoot strides (av pace 5:10)
XT: lunges, hip exercises
20k easy-moderate in 100mins (av pace 5:00)
XT: 15mins upper body weights
6k worth of hills plus wu + cd
Average only 5:00 pace (up & down), but HR never got below 160 due to quick jog down and then up again
40mins easy on treadmill (av pace 5:37)
XT: 80 abs on bench (no weights)
32.4k long run in 2h:37m (av pace 4:52)
10k easy @ 5:23, 140 bpm, 16k @ 4:30, 160 bpm, 6k easy with pick-ups. Testing the legs since I don't know what my MP is
Total 99k for the week in 8h:14m (av pace 5:00)
Week in summary:
Another 'ramping-up' week, with midweek and weekend long runs being extended to 20k and 32k respectively. Paces for these two runs are still on the slow side as my body is still adjusting to 100k weeks. Had one good threshold workout, but a dud again when doing hills. Next week will be another 'ramping-up' week with long run further stretched to 3 hours.